Several of you wrote that the only reason they were growing was because they were “swapping sheep” from other local churches. Some even claimed stats that local church transfers accounted for anywhere from 60-95 percent of new members at megachurches.
So I went digging for an accurate stat, and Scott has the only one I can find. In their 2009 report, Not Who You Think They Are: A Profile of the People Who Attend America’s Megachurches, Scott, David Travis and Warren Bird provide this breakdown:
Breakdown: 4 percent Organic; 6 percent Unchurched; 18 percent Dechurched; 28 percent Distant Transfer; 44 percent Local Transfer
So there it is — about 44 percent of new members at megachurches are from other local churches — not 60 percent, not 70 percent, and definitely not 95 percent. I hear people saying 90 percent and I agree that’s a myth. (But it is still way too high … just like so many other churches.)
I wish it were 0 percent, and every person that joined a megachurch was formerly without Christ, but the fact is that people do transfer between churches. Yet, I don’t know of any research or real evidence (beyond “but I KNOW it is true, Ed”) that megachurches transfer more out of local churches, destroying them while benefiting their own growth.
Actually, my friend (and church expert), George Hunter, says that based on his lifelong observation, 80 percent of church growth (in churches of all sizes) is transfer from other churches. (If you add local and distant transfer, you don’t quite get to 80 percent, but it is close.) In other words, megachurches transfer like everyone else — but since they are bigger, perhaps we notice it more.
In 2009, our LifeWay Research study of Protestant church pastors revealed “49 percent of new attendees during the last five years have transferred from other congregations, while 32 percent were unchurched and 19 percent were children born to adults attending the church.”
Now these are self-reported numbers from pastors, who I would assume report a higher percentage of unchurched and a lower percentage of church transfers than would be true if we surveyed the actual attendees (as was done in the megachurch study cited above). But the picture here shows us what is true in all churches.
Way too many people transfer from between churches. But it also shows what is not provable — that megachurches are draining and destroying local churches on a widespread basis. Most churches grow by transfer, regardless of size.
There are some differences in how we classified the information and how Scott, David and Warren did, but it is safe to say that on average, less than half of new church members — regardless of church size — come from other local churches. My guess is that megachurches attract more distant (new in town) transfers from other churches, but that is just a guess. Regardless, at this point, we just don’t have evidence that megachurches transfer people out of local churches at a higher rate than other churches.
Now, I understand that some have a very emotionally invested perception that megachurches steal all the sheep from local churches. And maybe it was true at your church. But by and large, there is no statistical evidence that shows that megachurches are having a disproportionate impact on other local churches through transfer.
I want more unchurched being reached, but by and large, with the information we have now, there is not evidence that megachurches transfer in more than other local churches — and in certain instances may do a little less.
For what it is worth, I’d love to see more research here to definitively answer the question, but at this point, someone’s hunch or angst does not make a trend or reality.
